The change in the average U.S. tariff rate in 2025 was the largest in the modern era. One way to assess the effects of such a large shock on unemployment and inflation is by looking at data from pre-World War II periods with tariff rate changes of a similar magnitude.

President Donald Trump has turned tariffs into the centerpiece of his economic strategy, and in 2026 the policy will bite even harder. The new schedule of import taxes, paired with promised $2,000 "tariff dividend" checks,

President Donald Trump introduced numerous tariffs on U.S. trade partners in 2025, promising the economy would benefit from them. His reasons for the tariffs varied from trade deficits to concerns about fentanyl entering the country.